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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-04T09:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24929/-1
CME Note: CME associated with an M3.9-class flare from Active Region 3296 seen to the northeast in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a brighter bulk to the southeast and faint, wider shock with matching leading edge extending from the southeast to the northeast. A halo-like feature closely trailing behind this CME seen in COR2 running difference imagery may be associated with the eruption, but this is uncertain. A SOHO data gap exists over the CME propagation in the C2 FOV of view, obscuring analysis. Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). The other CME candidate for this arrival is 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T08:59Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.66667 - 5.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -14671.60 hour(s)
Difference: 4.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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